Right now, domestic polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries and components are being deducted from prices across the board.
Under the influence of multiple factors such as weak demand for photovoltaic power stations in Europe, large-scale domestic expansion, and high inventory, the prices of components and batteries have fallen by 18% to 20% in three months, while the price of polysilicon has fallen by 10% in a single week. .
According to industry analysts, if there are no more "unforeseen" policies introduced in June this year, the downward trend in the prices of photovoltaic products may slow down.
Downstream: Policy Changes Cause Price Fluctuations An insider from Jiangsu Tenghui Power Technology Co., Ltd. told the reporter that if we look at it as a cycle for 3 months, the price of monocrystalline silicon (and polysilicon) components and batteries will become The most falling product in the photovoltaic industry chain.
According to statistics from January to May this year provided by a distributor to reporters, on February 8th to 14th this year, the price of 245 watt monocrystalline silicon modules was reported at 1.74 USD/W to 1.79 USD/W, as of last week. The market price range was between $1.48/W and $1.67/W, which fell by nearly 18%.
“If you observe from the beginning of the year, some component manufacturers may reduce the price by 30% in 5 months.†Wang Liusheng, a researcher at China Merchants Securities, told reporters that the reason why battery and module prices stabilized last year was because of financial services in 2009. After the crisis, the construction of power plants in Europe was in heavy volume, bank loans were in place, and investors’ confidence increased.
For Mr. Yu, a management of China Electric Power (CSUN.NSDQ), the adjustment of the prices of components and batteries is mainly due to the changes in Italian policy from March to May this year.
In March this year, the Italian government stated that it will adjust the PV tariff subsidies. "At that time, everyone was unclear about such a country that might have 3G watts demand (more demand in European countries) and what kind of subsidy cuts it would make, so they would not dare to ship." Mr. Yu disclosed.
He said that once the demand weakens, then the company's inventory will be overstocked, and the entire product line will undergo major changes, leading to continuous declines in prices.
Upstream: The worst case will fall 40%
Mr. Yu said that in the last week or two, the price of polysilicon may have fallen more. Polysilicon dropped from US$78/kg in early May to the current US$64/kg, a drop of more than 10%.
“Because demand is not high, some downstream components and battery companies may not continue to order polysilicon products. Some upstream polysilicon companies may be worried that prices will fall in the future, so they will sell products in the market, leading to the recent price plummet. Mr. Yu pointed out.
"Actually, the decline in polysilicon prices is not only because people are busy shipping, there is a very important reason is the relatively large capacity of downstream components." Wang Liusheng said.
Photovoltaic companies announced to expand production from 2010 to 2011 include Dongfang Risheng, CSG A, Tianwei New Energy, JA Solar, Hanwha-solarone (Hanwha New Energy, HSOL, NSDQ), etc. Some companies claim to have production lines. Will expand more than 20, scale 1G watts. "Last year, China's real grid connection was estimated to be about 400 megawatts, which is 40% of 1G watts," said Cao Renxian, inverter manufacturer and general manager of Solar Power.
Tenghui Electric also mentioned that most of the photovoltaic companies are currently operating between 50% and 70%, and a few companies have opened more than 80%.
Recently, the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) stated that the new assembly volume of global PV modules will exceed 20G watts in 2011, which will increase by 27% year-on-year. In 2010, the installed capacity of photovoltaics in the world has increased by 130% compared with that of 2009. Therefore, this year's growth will be much less than before.
Guo Jin Securities researcher Zhang Shuai also predicted that polysilicon may continue to lower prices in the next step. In the worst case, prices may have to decline by about 40% compared to the beginning of the year.
However, a researcher at Great Wall Securities analyzed that because Italy's new round of subsidy policy will allow the Italian market to restart, this means that for its downstream PV manufacturers, it can temporarily ease their breath and the prices of components that are continuing to fall are expected to stabilize.
“At the large PV exhibition in Europe in June this year, everyone will make a judgment on the trend of the market in the second half of the year.†Mr. Yu said, “Investing in photovoltaic power plants is a matter of 20 to 25 years from investors. From the point of view, they not only need to look at the positioning of short-term photovoltaic product prices, but also make the battery modules and power station equipment that they have purchased have a long service life, and the battery attenuation rate is also lower.
Under the influence of multiple factors such as weak demand for photovoltaic power stations in Europe, large-scale domestic expansion, and high inventory, the prices of components and batteries have fallen by 18% to 20% in three months, while the price of polysilicon has fallen by 10% in a single week. .
According to industry analysts, if there are no more "unforeseen" policies introduced in June this year, the downward trend in the prices of photovoltaic products may slow down.
Downstream: Policy Changes Cause Price Fluctuations An insider from Jiangsu Tenghui Power Technology Co., Ltd. told the reporter that if we look at it as a cycle for 3 months, the price of monocrystalline silicon (and polysilicon) components and batteries will become The most falling product in the photovoltaic industry chain.
According to statistics from January to May this year provided by a distributor to reporters, on February 8th to 14th this year, the price of 245 watt monocrystalline silicon modules was reported at 1.74 USD/W to 1.79 USD/W, as of last week. The market price range was between $1.48/W and $1.67/W, which fell by nearly 18%.
“If you observe from the beginning of the year, some component manufacturers may reduce the price by 30% in 5 months.†Wang Liusheng, a researcher at China Merchants Securities, told reporters that the reason why battery and module prices stabilized last year was because of financial services in 2009. After the crisis, the construction of power plants in Europe was in heavy volume, bank loans were in place, and investors’ confidence increased.
For Mr. Yu, a management of China Electric Power (CSUN.NSDQ), the adjustment of the prices of components and batteries is mainly due to the changes in Italian policy from March to May this year.
In March this year, the Italian government stated that it will adjust the PV tariff subsidies. "At that time, everyone was unclear about such a country that might have 3G watts demand (more demand in European countries) and what kind of subsidy cuts it would make, so they would not dare to ship." Mr. Yu disclosed.
He said that once the demand weakens, then the company's inventory will be overstocked, and the entire product line will undergo major changes, leading to continuous declines in prices.
Upstream: The worst case will fall 40%
Mr. Yu said that in the last week or two, the price of polysilicon may have fallen more. Polysilicon dropped from US$78/kg in early May to the current US$64/kg, a drop of more than 10%.
“Because demand is not high, some downstream components and battery companies may not continue to order polysilicon products. Some upstream polysilicon companies may be worried that prices will fall in the future, so they will sell products in the market, leading to the recent price plummet. Mr. Yu pointed out.
"Actually, the decline in polysilicon prices is not only because people are busy shipping, there is a very important reason is the relatively large capacity of downstream components." Wang Liusheng said.
Photovoltaic companies announced to expand production from 2010 to 2011 include Dongfang Risheng, CSG A, Tianwei New Energy, JA Solar, Hanwha-solarone (Hanwha New Energy, HSOL, NSDQ), etc. Some companies claim to have production lines. Will expand more than 20, scale 1G watts. "Last year, China's real grid connection was estimated to be about 400 megawatts, which is 40% of 1G watts," said Cao Renxian, inverter manufacturer and general manager of Solar Power.
Tenghui Electric also mentioned that most of the photovoltaic companies are currently operating between 50% and 70%, and a few companies have opened more than 80%.
Recently, the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) stated that the new assembly volume of global PV modules will exceed 20G watts in 2011, which will increase by 27% year-on-year. In 2010, the installed capacity of photovoltaics in the world has increased by 130% compared with that of 2009. Therefore, this year's growth will be much less than before.
Guo Jin Securities researcher Zhang Shuai also predicted that polysilicon may continue to lower prices in the next step. In the worst case, prices may have to decline by about 40% compared to the beginning of the year.
However, a researcher at Great Wall Securities analyzed that because Italy's new round of subsidy policy will allow the Italian market to restart, this means that for its downstream PV manufacturers, it can temporarily ease their breath and the prices of components that are continuing to fall are expected to stabilize.
“At the large PV exhibition in Europe in June this year, everyone will make a judgment on the trend of the market in the second half of the year.†Mr. Yu said, “Investing in photovoltaic power plants is a matter of 20 to 25 years from investors. From the point of view, they not only need to look at the positioning of short-term photovoltaic product prices, but also make the battery modules and power station equipment that they have purchased have a long service life, and the battery attenuation rate is also lower.
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