DRAM Q3 growth is strong, Q4 prices can be looming downward trend

According to an authoritative report from the electronics industry, it is expected that the DRAM industry will continue to maintain high-speed growth in the third quarter of 2010. In the fourth quarter, large-scale expansion of the production line by the original manufacturer will increase production capacity, which may result in loosening of prices, but large-scale manufacturers may Relying on high-density specialty DRAM products and converting high-end production processes with limited production capacity to preserve gross profit. The strong demand from the personal computer market and foundry inventory has made DRAM prices higher than ever before, and Apple’s new iPad and new Android platform smart phones have also increased the demand for NAND Flash memory in the end market.

This time is now in the second year of the rising cycle of the economy, and each rising cycle usually lasts 3-4 years. Large-scale first-tier plants are expected to maintain their advantages over second-tier plants because they still have certain technical thresholds and funding thresholds for Specialty DRAM. Under the premise of ensuring the ratio of input to output is uncertain, investors still adopt more conservative investments. It is also difficult to change the speed of the process. The factory needs a period of running-in to mass production.

The personal computer foundry’s view on the second half of the year was relatively conservative, because the European debt crisis cast a lot of uncertainties on various industrial chains, and the tablet computer also took away part of the mini-notebook market. Due to the double-digit increase in demand in the terminal market, the PC shipments in the third quarter of this year still have a 16-18% quarterly growth, and they should also perform well in the fourth quarter. As far as DRAM products are concerned, there is oversupply in DDR2, and the shortage of DDR3 will continue until the third quarter, after which it will love the increase in its original production. The phenomenon of market out-of-stock will be alleviated somewhat. Supply will increase later. In terms of speed, demand, and price will have a stage of adjustment.

In the current technological environment, there are still more and more people other than computers need to embed DRAM, and the proportion of Specialty DRAM in DRAM revenue continues to rise. For the first-line DRAM manufacturers, the current proportion is as high as 50%. The price premium of Specialty DRAM continues to expand. In fact, it has little effect on first-tier plants because the price correction is mainly in the DRAM portion of the product, while the higher proportion of first-line plants is in Specialty DRAM.