Home air conditioning industry: New cold year

After the end of the cold year in 2012, the industry's year-on-year decline in sales increased. According to the industry online data, air-conditioning production in August was 5.724 million units, down 24.43% year-on-year; total sales were 6.541 million units, down 15.14% year-on-year, of which domestic exports were 4,271,700 units, down year-on-year. 17.6%, exports 2,269,300 units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.09%; industry inventory of 6,695,900 units, a year-on-year decrease of 30.79%, domestic sales and inventory decline rate and magnitude of year-on-year growth exceeded market expectations.

In July and August, domestic sales fell more than expected: in July and August this year, the domestic sales of household air conditioners totaled 9.36 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.35%, which was higher than our previous forecast. About 5%; the total domestic sales in the third quarter of this year is expected to shrink by more than 14% year-on-year.

Exports declined slightly. The external demand situation in the future tends to be pessimistic. According to industry online data, in August this year, domestic air-conditioning exports completed 2,269,300 units, a year-on-year decline of 10.09%, and the decline rate slightly expanded. In conclusion, from July to August this year, the total domestic air conditioner exports completed 5.65 million units, down 4.88% year-on-year, and the decline rate is expected to increase in September, which is about 10% lower than the previous forecast of the third quarter overall air conditioner exports in July. The margin is slightly better. Under the influence of unfavorable economic recovery in the US and Europe, and the appreciation of the renminbi, the decline rate has increased again after narrowing in the first quarter of this year.

In August, Gree’s share sales volume both declined. Haier’s growth was in reverse: In August, Gree’s market share fell 14% from the same period of last year. In the same period, the US’s decline rate was 13%, and Haier’s share increased by 1 percentage point. In August, the market share of manufacturers other than the three major air-conditioning faucets, which accounted for 29%, increased by approximately 26% from the same period of last year, and the concentration of the industry's market dropped significantly.

The prices of raw materials for white goods continued to decline: Currently, the increase in QE3 for raw materials is not significant, and the overall market is still in a slow downward price cut channel. The intense price war begins and the whole industry has begun to transfer this part of cost profit to consumers. The gross margin level of the overall industry may continue to decline in the subsequent price war.