[Source: "High-tech LED-lighting market" August issue]
The difficulties of the channel not only plague LED companies, but also trouble dealers. However, from the macroscopic point of view of the entire industry, there are certain regularities in the development of industries in China and around the world. This kind of regularity is particularly obvious in China. The stage of industrial evolution is divided into six stages: the stage of uplifting— - Product competition stage - Channel competition stage - Brand competition stage - Capital competition stage - Business environment competition stage.
After a few years of brewing and promotion, the LED industry is now in a very typical stage of emergence, characterized by a large number of enterprises emerging. At present, the industry has begun to enter the stage of product competition, and the replacement and popularization of LED lighting products will be completed in the product competition stage.
The competition in the LED lighting industry is different from the traditional lighting industry. It is the competition of the enterprise model, and the upgrade is the competition of the whole industry chain. In the future, LED companies will integrate the upstream and downstream industry chains to compete, and their scale will be comparable to that of IT giants.
"High-tech LED" reporter: In the product competition stage, a number of LED enterprise definition products will emerge. How do you describe it?
Wu Zhengyi: There is a characteristic in the product competition stage. When the industry category is divided, the representative enterprises in the category effectively define the category.
There is a very obvious definition stage in the development of the traditional lighting industry. For example, the initial fluorescent lighting and fluorescent tubes are actually defined by 2-3 lighting companies to define fluorescent tubes and T8 tubes. Then Philips defines the high-end price line, Foshan Lighting defines the low-end price line, and Huaqiang Lighting draws a bottom line. After that, all the products of the fluorescent tubes are priced as a benchmark, which is equivalent to setting a threshold for slow half-shooting companies.
The rise of Sanxiong Aurora relies on ballasts, NVC relies on lamp cups and transformers, and Opus is a ceiling lamp... They all define their own class status during the product competition phase and complete the entry channel competition. The leap of the stage and then the transition to the brand stage. Therefore, in the past few years, the LED industry will have such companies as Op, NVC, and it is no exaggeration.
"High-tech LED" reporter : What difficulties does the traditional lighting enterprise face in transforming LED lighting?
Wu Zhengxuan: At present, for traditional lighting companies, the channel is more difficult to show in the product. For example, more than 300 energy-saving lamp companies in Lin'an have invested all the funds accumulated in the previous 10 years to purchase energy-saving lamp production equipment, which is all abolished in the LED era. Now that I am transforming into LEDs, I don’t know how to start, so for traditional lighting, the first thing is the product.
The arrival of the LED era will accelerate the reshuffle of industries including traditional lighting companies. For traditional lighting companies, it is not as simple as a dealer or a company. It is possible that a “fleet†is “washed outâ€. For example, in the development of the mobile phone industry from white screen to ring tones, the original well-known enterprises such as Qiaoxing and Bird were almost invisible. Because a large amount of inventory is piled up in their old solution machine, and the products in the new solution machine are not only better in performance, but the retail price is basically the cost price of the old machine product, and the advantages of the traditional product are almost completely lost.
"High-tech LED" reporter: You said that LED products are divided into three stages: replacement stage, popularization stage, and innovation stage. Can you describe these three stages in detail?
Wu Zhenghao: At present, LED lighting has entered the replacement stage. The government has announced a roadmap for the elimination of incandescent lamps. In addition to replacing incandescent lamps, halogen lamps and high-pressure sodium lamps have also entered the replacement phase. At this stage, you will find that the LED interface will be in great conflict with the original traditional luminaire. Therefore, the LED interface design is designed according to the interface, standard, specification and size of the traditional luminaire.
In addition, the product price is controlled within 2 times of the traditional lighting products, for example: 5W bulb lighting effect is 90-100 lumens, color rendering index is above 85, if the ex-factory price of energy-saving lamps is 8 yuan, the ex-factory price of 5W bulbs Controlled at 15 yuan, then the impact on the market will be great.
Once the price of LED products breaks through the industry price line, this amount will explode, and the market share will come out. At that time, there will be a category of ace companies. For example: T8, fluorescent tubes, candle lights, bulbs, etc., the emergence of a brand of ace companies, also means that there will be a large number of channels to follow. Therefore, I think this stage is very important and is a stage to lay the future pattern of the LED industry. In the replacement stage, the company does not want to make the product wider and bigger, but to find its own existence in the light source and make a breakthrough. When entering the popularization stage, it has basically reached a stable period, and LED products of various sizes can be used and have quality assurance.
According to the current development speed of LED, and the raw materials are basically stable at 8-10 yuan, I estimate that the retail price of 5W bulbs with 80 lumens in the second half and 80 colors above 30,000 hours will drop to 25 yuan. If the light efficiency is increased to 120 lumens next year, the 5-6W bulb will be very good, and the cost will be 10 yuan. It can also be said that it is the time to replace the energy-saving lamps. The company will cost 10 yuan, the price of 13 yuan to the general agent, the general agent and then wholesale to the retail center, the price of 16 yuan, then, the terminal retail price of 22-25 yuan can be fully implemented. At that time, the terminal inferior products will naturally be eliminated.
The universal application phase is the period of channel lead, followed by the stage of innovation application. However, as far as the domestic market is concerned, LEDs are developing too fast, almost simultaneously in two phases. Therefore, we are now facing the era of product competition in the replacement period, and the competition in the LED industry is different. It is essentially a semiconductor, but it has great similarities with the IT industry and the communication industry.
The difficulties of the channel not only plague LED companies, but also trouble dealers. However, from the macroscopic point of view of the entire industry, there are certain regularities in the development of industries in China and around the world. This kind of regularity is particularly obvious in China. The stage of industrial evolution is divided into six stages: the stage of uplifting— - Product competition stage - Channel competition stage - Brand competition stage - Capital competition stage - Business environment competition stage.
After a few years of brewing and promotion, the LED industry is now in a very typical stage of emergence, characterized by a large number of enterprises emerging. At present, the industry has begun to enter the stage of product competition, and the replacement and popularization of LED lighting products will be completed in the product competition stage.
The competition in the LED lighting industry is different from the traditional lighting industry. It is the competition of the enterprise model, and the upgrade is the competition of the whole industry chain. In the future, LED companies will integrate the upstream and downstream industry chains to compete, and their scale will be comparable to that of IT giants.
"High-tech LED" reporter: In the product competition stage, a number of LED enterprise definition products will emerge. How do you describe it?
Wu Zhengyi: There is a characteristic in the product competition stage. When the industry category is divided, the representative enterprises in the category effectively define the category.
There is a very obvious definition stage in the development of the traditional lighting industry. For example, the initial fluorescent lighting and fluorescent tubes are actually defined by 2-3 lighting companies to define fluorescent tubes and T8 tubes. Then Philips defines the high-end price line, Foshan Lighting defines the low-end price line, and Huaqiang Lighting draws a bottom line. After that, all the products of the fluorescent tubes are priced as a benchmark, which is equivalent to setting a threshold for slow half-shooting companies.
The rise of Sanxiong Aurora relies on ballasts, NVC relies on lamp cups and transformers, and Opus is a ceiling lamp... They all define their own class status during the product competition phase and complete the entry channel competition. The leap of the stage and then the transition to the brand stage. Therefore, in the past few years, the LED industry will have such companies as Op, NVC, and it is no exaggeration.
"High-tech LED" reporter : What difficulties does the traditional lighting enterprise face in transforming LED lighting?
Wu Zhengxuan: At present, for traditional lighting companies, the channel is more difficult to show in the product. For example, more than 300 energy-saving lamp companies in Lin'an have invested all the funds accumulated in the previous 10 years to purchase energy-saving lamp production equipment, which is all abolished in the LED era. Now that I am transforming into LEDs, I don’t know how to start, so for traditional lighting, the first thing is the product.
The arrival of the LED era will accelerate the reshuffle of industries including traditional lighting companies. For traditional lighting companies, it is not as simple as a dealer or a company. It is possible that a “fleet†is “washed outâ€. For example, in the development of the mobile phone industry from white screen to ring tones, the original well-known enterprises such as Qiaoxing and Bird were almost invisible. Because a large amount of inventory is piled up in their old solution machine, and the products in the new solution machine are not only better in performance, but the retail price is basically the cost price of the old machine product, and the advantages of the traditional product are almost completely lost.
"High-tech LED" reporter: You said that LED products are divided into three stages: replacement stage, popularization stage, and innovation stage. Can you describe these three stages in detail?
Wu Zhenghao: At present, LED lighting has entered the replacement stage. The government has announced a roadmap for the elimination of incandescent lamps. In addition to replacing incandescent lamps, halogen lamps and high-pressure sodium lamps have also entered the replacement phase. At this stage, you will find that the LED interface will be in great conflict with the original traditional luminaire. Therefore, the LED interface design is designed according to the interface, standard, specification and size of the traditional luminaire.
In addition, the product price is controlled within 2 times of the traditional lighting products, for example: 5W bulb lighting effect is 90-100 lumens, color rendering index is above 85, if the ex-factory price of energy-saving lamps is 8 yuan, the ex-factory price of 5W bulbs Controlled at 15 yuan, then the impact on the market will be great.
Once the price of LED products breaks through the industry price line, this amount will explode, and the market share will come out. At that time, there will be a category of ace companies. For example: T8, fluorescent tubes, candle lights, bulbs, etc., the emergence of a brand of ace companies, also means that there will be a large number of channels to follow. Therefore, I think this stage is very important and is a stage to lay the future pattern of the LED industry. In the replacement stage, the company does not want to make the product wider and bigger, but to find its own existence in the light source and make a breakthrough. When entering the popularization stage, it has basically reached a stable period, and LED products of various sizes can be used and have quality assurance.
According to the current development speed of LED, and the raw materials are basically stable at 8-10 yuan, I estimate that the retail price of 5W bulbs with 80 lumens in the second half and 80 colors above 30,000 hours will drop to 25 yuan. If the light efficiency is increased to 120 lumens next year, the 5-6W bulb will be very good, and the cost will be 10 yuan. It can also be said that it is the time to replace the energy-saving lamps. The company will cost 10 yuan, the price of 13 yuan to the general agent, the general agent and then wholesale to the retail center, the price of 16 yuan, then, the terminal retail price of 22-25 yuan can be fully implemented. At that time, the terminal inferior products will naturally be eliminated.
The universal application phase is the period of channel lead, followed by the stage of innovation application. However, as far as the domestic market is concerned, LEDs are developing too fast, almost simultaneously in two phases. Therefore, we are now facing the era of product competition in the replacement period, and the competition in the LED industry is different. It is essentially a semiconductor, but it has great similarities with the IT industry and the communication industry.
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