According to the National Electric Power Industry Statistics Express released by the China Electricity Council on the 16th, the power generation of nuclear power in 2011 was 87.4 billion kilowatts, an increase of 16.95% over the previous year, which was second only to wind power. Although the project under construction has not been stopped, it is not difficult to complete the set target for nuclear power "12th Five-Year Plan". However, the suspension of new projects has been approved for nearly one year, which means that at least one year of new projects will be invested during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period. The traffic volume will be greatly reduced.
The scale of nuclear power "13th Five-Year Plan" or slightly lowering the impact of the nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan, on China's nuclear power is in the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" rather than the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period.
According to insiders, despite the suspension of new project approvals, the 27 nuclear power generating units currently under construction are being promoted according to the original plan. CNG's Lingao Nuclear Power Station Phase 2 Unit 2 and Qinshan Phase 2 Expansion Project Unit 4 were successively completed in 2011. Grid-connected effort. According to the source, the installed capacity of the unit under construction is 30.79 million kilowatts, and the annual investment in fixed assets exceeds 70 billion yuan. It is estimated that by 2015, the installed capacity of nuclear power in China will exceed 40 million kilowatts.
The 40 million installed capacity is in line with the “12th Five-Year†nuclear power development target set by the National Energy Administration. According to the National Energy Administration, by 2015, the installed capacity of the transported projects will reach 40 million kilowatts, the installed capacity of the start-up construction projects will reach 38 million kilowatts, and the nuclear power generation capacity will reach 320 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 2.2% of the primary energy consumption.
According to the above-mentioned industry sources, the latest time for the construction of the 27 units under construction is 2017, of which 2013 and 2014 are the peak period for the completion of the nuclear power plant.
However, the relevant person in charge of CNNC pointed out that since March 2011 the suspension of new project approvals has been suspended, which means that at least 2018 and 2019 new installed capacity of nuclear power will be significantly reduced, even threatening the energy share of nuclear power in 2020 .
The introduction of nuclear safety planning and the mid-to-long-term planning of nuclear power signals the opening and closing of new nuclear power project approvals. It is generally expected by the industry that in view of the non-fossil energy emission target pressure China is currently facing, nuclear power safety planning is expected to be introduced in the first quarter of this year, and mid- and long-term plans for nuclear power are expected to be introduced in March-April.
Waiting for approval of new project approvals The current mid- and long-term plans for nuclear power are still in the process of being formulated. Some media have reported that it plans to reduce the installed capacity of nuclear power from 80 million kilowatts to 60 million kilowatts by 2020.
“The reduction in the size of nuclear power is inevitable, but the specific extent of the downward adjustment, there is no accurate information.†Some analysts pointed out that the number of hours of nuclear power utilization is relatively high, and relatively stable, once the large-scale decline in nuclear power installed, will give other hydropower, wind power , Solar energy and other renewable energy sources have increased pressure.
Analyst Hou Wentao of Xiangcai Securities estimated from the perspective of 15% non-fossil energy consumption target in 2020. If nuclear power installed capacity is reduced by 10 million kilowatts from 80 million kilowatts, conventional hydropower will increase by 22.5 million kilowatts, or wind power will increase 4000. Million kilowatts, or increase solar power by 50 million kilowatts. Once nuclear power is installed at only 60 million kilowatts, it will put tremendous pressure on other renewable energy sources.
In 2011, 122.5 million kilowatts of new hydropower installed capacity, but the hydropower output situation still needs to look at the water situation. Statistics show that the number of hydropower utilization hours in 2011 reached 3028 hours, 376 hours lower than the previous year. As the annual power generation was lower than the same period, the performance of hydropower companies also fell. According to the 2011 annual results report released by Yangtze Power, the company achieved operating revenue of 20.762 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.11%, and net profit of 7.728 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.05%. In addition, there are various problems in the integration of wind power and solar energy.
The research institutions of several brokers such as Xiangcai Securities and Dongxing Securities believe that the installed capacity of nuclear power will not be reduced too much in 2020, and the approval of new nuclear power projects will also be opened as soon as possible.
The scale of nuclear power "13th Five-Year Plan" or slightly lowering the impact of the nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan, on China's nuclear power is in the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" rather than the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period.
According to insiders, despite the suspension of new project approvals, the 27 nuclear power generating units currently under construction are being promoted according to the original plan. CNG's Lingao Nuclear Power Station Phase 2 Unit 2 and Qinshan Phase 2 Expansion Project Unit 4 were successively completed in 2011. Grid-connected effort. According to the source, the installed capacity of the unit under construction is 30.79 million kilowatts, and the annual investment in fixed assets exceeds 70 billion yuan. It is estimated that by 2015, the installed capacity of nuclear power in China will exceed 40 million kilowatts.
The 40 million installed capacity is in line with the “12th Five-Year†nuclear power development target set by the National Energy Administration. According to the National Energy Administration, by 2015, the installed capacity of the transported projects will reach 40 million kilowatts, the installed capacity of the start-up construction projects will reach 38 million kilowatts, and the nuclear power generation capacity will reach 320 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 2.2% of the primary energy consumption.
According to the above-mentioned industry sources, the latest time for the construction of the 27 units under construction is 2017, of which 2013 and 2014 are the peak period for the completion of the nuclear power plant.
However, the relevant person in charge of CNNC pointed out that since March 2011 the suspension of new project approvals has been suspended, which means that at least 2018 and 2019 new installed capacity of nuclear power will be significantly reduced, even threatening the energy share of nuclear power in 2020 .
The introduction of nuclear safety planning and the mid-to-long-term planning of nuclear power signals the opening and closing of new nuclear power project approvals. It is generally expected by the industry that in view of the non-fossil energy emission target pressure China is currently facing, nuclear power safety planning is expected to be introduced in the first quarter of this year, and mid- and long-term plans for nuclear power are expected to be introduced in March-April.
Waiting for approval of new project approvals The current mid- and long-term plans for nuclear power are still in the process of being formulated. Some media have reported that it plans to reduce the installed capacity of nuclear power from 80 million kilowatts to 60 million kilowatts by 2020.
“The reduction in the size of nuclear power is inevitable, but the specific extent of the downward adjustment, there is no accurate information.†Some analysts pointed out that the number of hours of nuclear power utilization is relatively high, and relatively stable, once the large-scale decline in nuclear power installed, will give other hydropower, wind power , Solar energy and other renewable energy sources have increased pressure.
Analyst Hou Wentao of Xiangcai Securities estimated from the perspective of 15% non-fossil energy consumption target in 2020. If nuclear power installed capacity is reduced by 10 million kilowatts from 80 million kilowatts, conventional hydropower will increase by 22.5 million kilowatts, or wind power will increase 4000. Million kilowatts, or increase solar power by 50 million kilowatts. Once nuclear power is installed at only 60 million kilowatts, it will put tremendous pressure on other renewable energy sources.
In 2011, 122.5 million kilowatts of new hydropower installed capacity, but the hydropower output situation still needs to look at the water situation. Statistics show that the number of hydropower utilization hours in 2011 reached 3028 hours, 376 hours lower than the previous year. As the annual power generation was lower than the same period, the performance of hydropower companies also fell. According to the 2011 annual results report released by Yangtze Power, the company achieved operating revenue of 20.762 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.11%, and net profit of 7.728 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.05%. In addition, there are various problems in the integration of wind power and solar energy.
The research institutions of several brokers such as Xiangcai Securities and Dongxing Securities believe that the installed capacity of nuclear power will not be reduced too much in 2020, and the approval of new nuclear power projects will also be opened as soon as possible.
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