The slowdown in GDP growth, cable companies how to do?

On March 5, when the National "two sessions" and the Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council submitted a government work report to the Fifth Session of the Eleventh National People's Congress, the gross domestic product in 2012 increased by 7.5%. This is the first time that our country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth target is below 8% for the first time in eight years. Even in the global financial crisis in 2008, China’s GDP growth rate still increased by 9.2% over the previous year. The actual growth rate in 2010 was 10.4%, and the actual growth rate in 2011 was 9.2%. The slowdown in GDP growth means that for the wire and cable industry, which depends on the growth rate of GDP, it means that 2012 is a key point.

The development of the wire and cable industry is closely related to the country's total economic output. Even at a certain time, to some extent, the development of the wire and cable industry represents the degree of national economic development of a country. A fact that can prove this is that China’s total economic output exceeded that of Japan last year, becoming the second largest in the world, second only to the United States; along with the rapid development of China’s economy, in the wire and cable industry, China has surpassed the United States to become a The world's largest wire and cable producer.

At the end of last month, when the author interviewed Wei Dong, director of the Shanghai Cable Institute, when asked how to look at the merger and reorganization path of wire and cable companies in the coming years, Wei Dong mentioned one that he discovered during years of research. The law is that he was studying the development of wire and cable in the 1990s abroad, and at the beginning of this century, he discovered that the growth rate of the wire and cable industry was basically in line with GDP growth. He was doing a correlation analysis. At the time of discovery, the correlation analysis between the growth curve of electric wire and cable and the GDP curve reached 0.97, 0.98, which was almost completely coincident. Therefore, he believes that GDP growth is closely related to the development of the cable industry. This view of Wei Dong can also fully explain an important reason for the rapid development of China's wire and cable industry in recent years. However, if we look at Wei Dong’s viewpoints in the light of recent conditions, it is possible that the future development of the wire and cable industry will not be so optimistic.

The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year also proposed: Deepening the reform of key areas and key links is the key to promoting the adjustment of economic structure and changing the mode of development. The impact of the adjustment of economic structure and the transformation of the development mode on many industries will be very obvious. According to the analysis of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, China's industrial growth rate in 2012 may continue to maintain a moderate correction. The operating pressures of the raw material industry, automobile industry, shipbuilding industry, consumer goods industry and electronic manufacturing industry will increase, and the situation is not optimistic.

In 2012, the Chinese economy will exhibit two major characteristics: First, the year of economic restructuring, the annual growth rate will gradually decline, and the high-speed growth period may end. Second, due to the tightening of monetary policy in order to control inflation in 2011, which has brought about financial constraints, it will show a loose monetary policy in 2012. Therefore, under the circumstances of a slowdown in GDP growth, an unbalanced economic structure, and adjustment of the industrial structure, wire and cable enterprises should not excessively pursue economic growth, and should not continue to implement expansion policies. Instead, they should focus on adjusting the industrial structure and promoting each The reform of the system will lay the foundation for long-term economic development.