Bottom-rebound optical communication components and equipment foam demand is too large to drive a wave of fiber construction, operators began to build all-optical network and optical backbone network, due to the use of bandwidth is not as expected, long-distance, backbone network Over-construction caused the optical communication equipment component manufacturers to reduce inventory as the primary goal for the next two years, and also caused the price of optical communication component equipment to fall wildly and the production capacity to stop expanding. This situation continued until the second half of 2003, and inventory was finally brought under control.
At the same time, with the rapid growth of telecommunications and Internet users, as well as the application of e-commerce, online entertainment, distance education, promotion of metropolitan area networks, local area networks and storage networks SAN, FTTH, etc., finally made the industry downturn after more than two years. After that, the communications market bottomed out in 2003 and resumed growth in 2004. However, due to the operator's cautious attitude towards investment and the strategy of maximizing the use of existing networks, the slowdown in bandwidth demand growth, mergers and acquisitions of operating companies, and falling prices, all these factors have made the optical networking equipment market better. But the intensity is limited.
The market changes of optical components have become the leading observation indicators of the communications industry. The price of DWDM modules and SONET/SDH optical transceivers has gradually stabilized, and it is expected to maintain a growth trend of more than 15% by 2008. In order to compete in the market for price-selling, optical component manufacturers began to reduce the cost of production in product design and expand the order volume.
Due to the good market base, SONET/SDH optical components are expected to exceed US$500 million in 2006, with an average growth rate of 20.7% from 2005 to 2008. Among the WDM optical components, the demand for CWDM for metropolitan area networks and access networks is increasing. It is estimated that the output value in 2006 will exceed 500 million US dollars, and the average annual growth rate from 2003 to 2008 is 29.2%. The development of the access market has also driven the growth of Iternet, which is expected to exceed $1 billion in 2008.
The construction of optical Ethernet and optical fiber communication in the data communication market will benefit the increase in revenue of optical component manufacturers. According to RHK statistics, in 2005 JDSU ranked first with 15.2% market share and Agilent ranked second. However, vendors such as Mitsubishi, Furukawa, Avanex, and Sumitomo, which focus on the data communication market, have experienced relatively fast revenue growth per quarter, threatening JDSU's market share.
In the first half of 2005, the market share of optoelectronic device manufacturers, JDSU and Agilent are still in the forefront, but did not occupy an absolute advantage, other manufacturers still occupy 44% of the market share.
Although the scale of China's optical components market fell to 1.45 billion yuan in 2002, a 19% decline compared with 2001, but compared with the 33% decline in the scale of China's optical communication equipment market, the optical components market has suffered less impact. The following two reasons: First, from the perspective of network system development, telecom operators began to build metropolitan area networks and backbone networks, compared to backbone optical components, which have saturated or even declined demand, optical components of metropolitan area networks and backbone networks. Under the support of demand growth, the resilience is strong, thus reducing the decline of the overall optical components. Secondly, from the perspective of network structure, the number of optical components required by the backbone network is less than that of the metropolitan area network and the backbone network, making it occupy the network construction cost. The proportion is lower, thereby reducing the extent to which components are affected by the foaming of optical communications. In 2006, China's optical components market will further develop under the trend of high demand for broadband and the convergence of various networks.
The network demand mapping optical device market has undergone large-scale investment and construction in the past two years. The framework of the long-distance backbone transmission network has been basically completed, and the investment direction of operators in the past few years has begun to shift. Investment in areas such as metropolitan area networks, ultra-long-haul transmission systems and backbone auto-switched optical networks will show an increasing trend in the next year. Now the optical communication market is a big buyer market, and the investment shift of operators will affect the corresponding network equipment providers and device providers. In terms of optical networks, recent market development directions and focus are on the metropolitan area network market (including access backbones), the automation of backbone optical networks, the slowdown of long-distance WDM linear systems, and the development of terrestrial ultra-long-distance transmission systems. Enhanced.
The transformation of the focus of optical network construction has little effect on the overall demand of optical devices. Optical networks will only become more and more popular, and the demand for optical components will only increase. Only the shift of optical network construction will cause The growth in demand for certain types of optical devices is accelerating. Optical transmitters and receivers are the largest share of the optical communications market, and are required for each terminal. The optical transceiver module application environment is divided into long-distance transmission, short-distance transmission and ultra-short distance transmission. In recent years, the construction of metropolitan area networks and access networks will promote the use of transceiver modules with 2.5Gb/s and 10Gb/s rates in short-distance applications, especially for low-cost VCSEL transmitters. Ultra-short-distance optical transceiver modules are mainly used for connection between optical backplanes or close-range devices, while low-rate LEDs will be widely used on access networks.
As a very common and extremely effective means, the new opportunity is the merger and reorganization of the optical communication industry. Judging from the development history of JDSU and Finisar, through continuous mergers and acquisitions, communication manufacturers can make up for their own competitive advantages in technology and resources and collect customer resources.
The industry is still in the process of reorganization, mergers and acquisitions will continue to occur, and the industrial ecology is still changing. According to the estimation of the research institute, about 450-500 optical communication new companies were established from 1998 to 2002, and at the end of 2003, more than 50% of the newly established optical communication companies faded and 25%-35% were annexed. Only 15% to 25% will survive the initial business. In this process, system manufacturers gradually faded out of the component market, and professional component manufacturers became the market's main force. Second-line component manufacturers borrowed and sourced system vendors to actively expand their market share. The vertical integration of optical device industry and the form of professional division of labor have gradually become clear, and the future positioning of manufacturers is roughly finalized.
From the perspective of market demand, the most demanding power of the optical transceiver module will come from the optical interface Ethernet switch. The combination of Ethernet and fiber optics is becoming an ideal choice for building cost-effective broadband networks in office buildings, residential communities and homes. In the future, the broadband LAN market in office buildings will be dominated by Gigabit Ethernet, while residential and residential markets will be 10M. /100M Ethernet is the main.
In addition, once the fiber-to-the-home market is launched, it will play a strong role in driving the market for burst optical transceiver modules, WDM, discrete devices, and fiber-optic integrated wiring systems. As one of the important devices in optical fiber communication, the growth speed of optical transceiver module can not be ignored.
In general, the development trend of modules is miniaturization, low cost, low power consumption, long distance, high speed and hot swap. The hotspots of future optical devices are mainly concentrated in three blocks, wide area network, access (PON) network. As well as the LAN/SAN network market, active devices based on MSA modules and PON networks will be a very hot market, and with the rapid growth of metro access and data communication, SFP and XFP devices will also become suppliers. The most popular product.
At the same time, with the rapid growth of telecommunications and Internet users, as well as the application of e-commerce, online entertainment, distance education, promotion of metropolitan area networks, local area networks and storage networks SAN, FTTH, etc., finally made the industry downturn after more than two years. After that, the communications market bottomed out in 2003 and resumed growth in 2004. However, due to the operator's cautious attitude towards investment and the strategy of maximizing the use of existing networks, the slowdown in bandwidth demand growth, mergers and acquisitions of operating companies, and falling prices, all these factors have made the optical networking equipment market better. But the intensity is limited.
The market changes of optical components have become the leading observation indicators of the communications industry. The price of DWDM modules and SONET/SDH optical transceivers has gradually stabilized, and it is expected to maintain a growth trend of more than 15% by 2008. In order to compete in the market for price-selling, optical component manufacturers began to reduce the cost of production in product design and expand the order volume.
Due to the good market base, SONET/SDH optical components are expected to exceed US$500 million in 2006, with an average growth rate of 20.7% from 2005 to 2008. Among the WDM optical components, the demand for CWDM for metropolitan area networks and access networks is increasing. It is estimated that the output value in 2006 will exceed 500 million US dollars, and the average annual growth rate from 2003 to 2008 is 29.2%. The development of the access market has also driven the growth of Iternet, which is expected to exceed $1 billion in 2008.
The construction of optical Ethernet and optical fiber communication in the data communication market will benefit the increase in revenue of optical component manufacturers. According to RHK statistics, in 2005 JDSU ranked first with 15.2% market share and Agilent ranked second. However, vendors such as Mitsubishi, Furukawa, Avanex, and Sumitomo, which focus on the data communication market, have experienced relatively fast revenue growth per quarter, threatening JDSU's market share.
In the first half of 2005, the market share of optoelectronic device manufacturers, JDSU and Agilent are still in the forefront, but did not occupy an absolute advantage, other manufacturers still occupy 44% of the market share.
Although the scale of China's optical components market fell to 1.45 billion yuan in 2002, a 19% decline compared with 2001, but compared with the 33% decline in the scale of China's optical communication equipment market, the optical components market has suffered less impact. The following two reasons: First, from the perspective of network system development, telecom operators began to build metropolitan area networks and backbone networks, compared to backbone optical components, which have saturated or even declined demand, optical components of metropolitan area networks and backbone networks. Under the support of demand growth, the resilience is strong, thus reducing the decline of the overall optical components. Secondly, from the perspective of network structure, the number of optical components required by the backbone network is less than that of the metropolitan area network and the backbone network, making it occupy the network construction cost. The proportion is lower, thereby reducing the extent to which components are affected by the foaming of optical communications. In 2006, China's optical components market will further develop under the trend of high demand for broadband and the convergence of various networks.
The network demand mapping optical device market has undergone large-scale investment and construction in the past two years. The framework of the long-distance backbone transmission network has been basically completed, and the investment direction of operators in the past few years has begun to shift. Investment in areas such as metropolitan area networks, ultra-long-haul transmission systems and backbone auto-switched optical networks will show an increasing trend in the next year. Now the optical communication market is a big buyer market, and the investment shift of operators will affect the corresponding network equipment providers and device providers. In terms of optical networks, recent market development directions and focus are on the metropolitan area network market (including access backbones), the automation of backbone optical networks, the slowdown of long-distance WDM linear systems, and the development of terrestrial ultra-long-distance transmission systems. Enhanced.
The transformation of the focus of optical network construction has little effect on the overall demand of optical devices. Optical networks will only become more and more popular, and the demand for optical components will only increase. Only the shift of optical network construction will cause The growth in demand for certain types of optical devices is accelerating. Optical transmitters and receivers are the largest share of the optical communications market, and are required for each terminal. The optical transceiver module application environment is divided into long-distance transmission, short-distance transmission and ultra-short distance transmission. In recent years, the construction of metropolitan area networks and access networks will promote the use of transceiver modules with 2.5Gb/s and 10Gb/s rates in short-distance applications, especially for low-cost VCSEL transmitters. Ultra-short-distance optical transceiver modules are mainly used for connection between optical backplanes or close-range devices, while low-rate LEDs will be widely used on access networks.
As a very common and extremely effective means, the new opportunity is the merger and reorganization of the optical communication industry. Judging from the development history of JDSU and Finisar, through continuous mergers and acquisitions, communication manufacturers can make up for their own competitive advantages in technology and resources and collect customer resources.
The industry is still in the process of reorganization, mergers and acquisitions will continue to occur, and the industrial ecology is still changing. According to the estimation of the research institute, about 450-500 optical communication new companies were established from 1998 to 2002, and at the end of 2003, more than 50% of the newly established optical communication companies faded and 25%-35% were annexed. Only 15% to 25% will survive the initial business. In this process, system manufacturers gradually faded out of the component market, and professional component manufacturers became the market's main force. Second-line component manufacturers borrowed and sourced system vendors to actively expand their market share. The vertical integration of optical device industry and the form of professional division of labor have gradually become clear, and the future positioning of manufacturers is roughly finalized.
From the perspective of market demand, the most demanding power of the optical transceiver module will come from the optical interface Ethernet switch. The combination of Ethernet and fiber optics is becoming an ideal choice for building cost-effective broadband networks in office buildings, residential communities and homes. In the future, the broadband LAN market in office buildings will be dominated by Gigabit Ethernet, while residential and residential markets will be 10M. /100M Ethernet is the main.
In addition, once the fiber-to-the-home market is launched, it will play a strong role in driving the market for burst optical transceiver modules, WDM, discrete devices, and fiber-optic integrated wiring systems. As one of the important devices in optical fiber communication, the growth speed of optical transceiver module can not be ignored.
In general, the development trend of modules is miniaturization, low cost, low power consumption, long distance, high speed and hot swap. The hotspots of future optical devices are mainly concentrated in three blocks, wide area network, access (PON) network. As well as the LAN/SAN network market, active devices based on MSA modules and PON networks will be a very hot market, and with the rapid growth of metro access and data communication, SFP and XFP devices will also become suppliers. The most popular product.
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