Benedict Evans, a partner at Silicon Valley venture capital Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), said in a blog post that the era of innovation in smartphones is over, but no one can say that voice interfaces or artificial intelligence will Be the next "burst point". He also analyzed in detail the development challenges currently facing the voice interface.
The design of the iPhone 6 has been going on for three years (previously every generation of iPhone design Apple only used two years), this autumn Apple is expected to release a new generation of iPhone, but it is just "another" iPhone. Presumably, we will hear a lot of voices like "Apple's innovation is dead". The same is true for Android. There are not many new features in the newly released O version. The outside world is still the argument - "Innovation is dead."
In fact, the era of innovation in smartphones is over. In a16z, we summarize it as the S-shaped curve of the new technology product (pictured). The PC products of the 1990s experienced the same S-curve, and the PC's current development is almost stagnant (the Tiger Sniff Editor: Take a look at the Lenovo computer), and the smartphone is facing or about to face the same situation. Although the camera performance of smartphones will become stronger and the chip speed will become faster, the war on smartphones is over.
In other words, no one will ask questions like "Who will win this war?" Apple and Google won, and the victory has been set, just like Microsoft in the PC operating system field in 1995. The problem now is that there are 2.5 billion smartphone users worldwide, and will grow to 5 billion in a few years. Which next S-shaped curve will be that technology product? Will it be a voice assistant? Not too possible. Although Amazon may have bought tens of millions of Echo, Google has also launched Google Home products, but the voice assistant still has too many problems to solve.
Let's first look at why there have been more discussions about voice assistants in recent times. First of all, the effect of speech recognition technology has been very different from the past. From 2012 to now, the error rate of speech recognition technology has dropped from 33% to less than 5%. Although 5% is still not a good enough effect, it has gradually begun to be accepted by users. In addition, from the perspective of the US market, the latter two companies (Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon), the latter two companies do not have their own hardware platform. So Amazon will push Echo, and Facebook is also pushing for artificial intelligence products.
So will the current voice assistant product have an outbreak of the S-shaped curve? Not too possible.
If you look closely at the current application of voice technology products, it is not difficult to find that it is still only used as a voice command interface, that is, the conversion of voice into text (and the recognition rate of this process still needs to be improved), the actual The system command operation is still the old mode. For example, the user can fill in a dialog box with voice input, but the essence of the solution is still behind the dialog box, and voice is just an imperfect interface.
But some voice assistant products are doing something that is misleading: technology companies let users feel that they can understand and do everything as long as they speak to the voice assistant.
The actual situation is that there are only a few dozen (up to 50) real "dialog boxes" behind the voice interface, that is, even if the user's natural language commands can be successfully recognized, the "Dialog" can also complete the operation. Very limited. Of course, some people will also say that technology companies will continue to increase the number of things that voice assistants can do, and perhaps increase to hundreds in the future. But from the user's point of view, using the voice assistant is faced with such a "difficult situation": I need to know what it can do, otherwise I will say it to him for a long time is also white - this is still in the case of successful identification.
From the perspective of user experience, this increases the difficulty of using this product, not only is not convenient, but also increases the burden. Considering that most of the current voice assistant products can only do some simple operations, then the user does not actually need to go around this circle, just a few screens. Touch operations are also the way most users have established usage habits.
Let's compare the use of voice assistants with smart watches. What both products can do, your smartphone can do it, but these two products make it easier for users to operate in certain situations (as long as you can think of them), such as setting an alarm clock or currency conversion. But convenience is only reflected when the user clearly understands these specific scenarios. Otherwise, the most convenient choice for the user is actually to take out the phone and click on the screen.
The voice assistant product cannot ensure effective use results when there are few usage scenarios, which increases the cost of the user. Moreover, the speech recognition rate still needs to be improved. However, for some specific and simple user operations (such as switching lights), products like Amazon Echo do have an advantage. That is to say, although in theory, the voice assistant can do a lot of things, but only one or two functions are the most suitable for this product.
Some people want to make voice technology the next explosive product, which is understandable. Especially considering that smartphones are gradually moving closer to PCs. But whether voice technology can usher in the burst of the S-shaped curve is very doubtful.
TO-220 Transistor Outline Package is a type of in-line package often used in high-power transistors and small and medium-sized integrated circuits.
It not only plays the role of mounting, fixing, sealing, protecting the chip and enhancing the electrothermal performance, but also connects to the pins of the package shell with wires through the contacts on the chip, and these pins pass through the wires on the printed circuit board. Connect with other devices to realize the connection between the internal chip and the external circuit.Because the chip must be isolated from the outside world to prevent impurities in the air from corroding the chip circuit and causing electrical performance degradation. On the other hand, the packaged chip is also easier to install and transport.
TO-220 package is a kind of in-line package that is often used for fast recovery diodes. TO-220AC represents a single tube with only two pins and only one chip inside.
The diodes are packaged in TO-220AC and can be used in switch mode power supplies (SMPS), power factor correction (PFC), engine drives, photovoltaic inverters, uninterruptible power supplies, wind engines, train traction systems, electric vehicles and other fields.
Super Fast Recovery Rectifiers,Fast Rectifiers Diode,Ultra Fast Rectifiers
Changzhou Changyuan Electronic Co., Ltd. , https://www.cydiode.com