The international research institute iSuppli released its 2012 PV industry outlook forecast report in Shanghai, saying that due to the reduction of subsidy budget and the restrictions imposed by various governments on the amount of PV installations, the total PV installation in 2012 may decline. The areas where installations are expected to decrease include Italy, France and Germany, but it is expected that the Chinese market will increase significantly to 2.4GW-2.7GW.
According to Henning Wicht, Senior Director and Chief Analyst of photovoltaic industry at iSuppli, the crystalline silicon component has fallen by 40% year-to-date and is expected to decline slightly in the fourth quarter. The slowdown is mainly due to the fact that the price has dropped below the cost line and the entire industry in the first half of next year Also not good.
There is little room for improvement in gross profit margin in the fourth quarter. iSuppli expects that the annual PV market scale in 2011 is expected to reach 21.9 GW, with major markets such as Germany, Italy, the United States, China, and Japan pushing the market up by 25% year-on-year. Among them, the installed capacity in Germany and Italy this year is expected to reach 5.9GW and 6GW.
According to iSuppli's data, by the end of the third quarter, the global installed capacity of photovoltaics is 14GW, which means that the amount of PV installed in the fourth quarter will increase significantly, and the installed capacity in the fourth quarter will be as high as 7.9GW.
However, Isuppli photovoltaic senior analyst Gu Lijun told reporters that in the fourth quarter, countries such as Germany and the United States will decline with the cost of photovoltaics, before the subsidy policy declines, the market installed capacity will increase rapidly. However, since the inventory of access channels is very large this year, and the previous production costs are significantly higher than now, the profits and gross profit margin of actual photovoltaic companies will not be significantly improved.
By the end of the third quarter, except for the relatively stable price of polysilicon, the gross profit rate of low-cost enterprises was still 50%. For most battery and component manufacturers, EBIT (EBIT before interest and tax) is still close to zero or even negative.
In 2010, the demand of Germany and Italy accounted for 80% of the world's total, and this year it is expected to drop to 60%. iSuppli expects that in the next few years, the photovoltaic market will gradually shift from Europe to the United States and Asia. The forecast of regional installation volume as of 2015 shows that at the end of 2011, the European PV installations will account for 63% of the global installations. But by 2015, this number will be only 33%. It is expected that China's installed capacity of 2.4 GW or more in the next year will be unpredictable in the market in 2011, and the decline in the full range of photovoltaic products will be somewhat unexpected. In the second quarter of this year, the price of crystalline silicon modules fell by 16%. This trend continued in the third quarter. By the end of the third quarter, the price of China's first-tier crystalline silicon module suppliers was between 0.83-0.85 euros/W. The price of crystalline silicon cells and wafers also dropped to $0.75/W and $0.54/W (156mm polysilicon wafers).
HenningWicht said that the continued sharp decline in the third quarter was actually worse than expected. It is expected that prices will continue to fall in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the price cuts for components will fall to around 0.77 euros/W during the year, the battery drop will drop to 0.72 US dollars/W, and the price of polysilicon will drop to 42-45 US dollars/kg. Although iSuppli's basic judgment on the total amount of photovoltaic installations in 2012 is likely to decline, some flexible potential installed capacity based on policy uncertainties in many countries and regions are also given.
HenningWicht said that as China announced the benchmark on-grid tariff in July this year, Japan also claimed to further support photovoltaic power generation, as well as the elasticity caused by the uncertainty of the subsidy policy including the most important PV demand countries Germany and Italy, and the entire photovoltaic market in 2012. Calculating the potential demand will likely reach 27GW. If this half demand can be realized, it will be able to reach 24GW.
iSupply expects that China's annual PV installation capacity this year will reach 1.5-1.7GW, which is more than twice the previous year's 0.5GW, and it is expected to increase to 2.4-2.7GW next year, in addition to the potential installed capacity of 1GW.
According to Henning Wicht, Senior Director and Chief Analyst of photovoltaic industry at iSuppli, the crystalline silicon component has fallen by 40% year-to-date and is expected to decline slightly in the fourth quarter. The slowdown is mainly due to the fact that the price has dropped below the cost line and the entire industry in the first half of next year Also not good.
There is little room for improvement in gross profit margin in the fourth quarter. iSuppli expects that the annual PV market scale in 2011 is expected to reach 21.9 GW, with major markets such as Germany, Italy, the United States, China, and Japan pushing the market up by 25% year-on-year. Among them, the installed capacity in Germany and Italy this year is expected to reach 5.9GW and 6GW.
According to iSuppli's data, by the end of the third quarter, the global installed capacity of photovoltaics is 14GW, which means that the amount of PV installed in the fourth quarter will increase significantly, and the installed capacity in the fourth quarter will be as high as 7.9GW.
However, Isuppli photovoltaic senior analyst Gu Lijun told reporters that in the fourth quarter, countries such as Germany and the United States will decline with the cost of photovoltaics, before the subsidy policy declines, the market installed capacity will increase rapidly. However, since the inventory of access channels is very large this year, and the previous production costs are significantly higher than now, the profits and gross profit margin of actual photovoltaic companies will not be significantly improved.
By the end of the third quarter, except for the relatively stable price of polysilicon, the gross profit rate of low-cost enterprises was still 50%. For most battery and component manufacturers, EBIT (EBIT before interest and tax) is still close to zero or even negative.
In 2010, the demand of Germany and Italy accounted for 80% of the world's total, and this year it is expected to drop to 60%. iSuppli expects that in the next few years, the photovoltaic market will gradually shift from Europe to the United States and Asia. The forecast of regional installation volume as of 2015 shows that at the end of 2011, the European PV installations will account for 63% of the global installations. But by 2015, this number will be only 33%. It is expected that China's installed capacity of 2.4 GW or more in the next year will be unpredictable in the market in 2011, and the decline in the full range of photovoltaic products will be somewhat unexpected. In the second quarter of this year, the price of crystalline silicon modules fell by 16%. This trend continued in the third quarter. By the end of the third quarter, the price of China's first-tier crystalline silicon module suppliers was between 0.83-0.85 euros/W. The price of crystalline silicon cells and wafers also dropped to $0.75/W and $0.54/W (156mm polysilicon wafers).
HenningWicht said that the continued sharp decline in the third quarter was actually worse than expected. It is expected that prices will continue to fall in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the price cuts for components will fall to around 0.77 euros/W during the year, the battery drop will drop to 0.72 US dollars/W, and the price of polysilicon will drop to 42-45 US dollars/kg. Although iSuppli's basic judgment on the total amount of photovoltaic installations in 2012 is likely to decline, some flexible potential installed capacity based on policy uncertainties in many countries and regions are also given.
HenningWicht said that as China announced the benchmark on-grid tariff in July this year, Japan also claimed to further support photovoltaic power generation, as well as the elasticity caused by the uncertainty of the subsidy policy including the most important PV demand countries Germany and Italy, and the entire photovoltaic market in 2012. Calculating the potential demand will likely reach 27GW. If this half demand can be realized, it will be able to reach 24GW.
iSupply expects that China's annual PV installation capacity this year will reach 1.5-1.7GW, which is more than twice the previous year's 0.5GW, and it is expected to increase to 2.4-2.7GW next year, in addition to the potential installed capacity of 1GW.
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