Since the new energy vehicle became a tuyere, it has begun to have its unique function as a tuyere:
The first is to suffocate people-to suffocate dreams. China has never lacked dreamers. There are many people who use all means to realize their dreams. It's just that some extreme people's actions are too loud and of course become labels, and all the voices naturally focus on this label.
So everyone habitually ignores the second group of people in the wind. They have the characteristics of migratory birds. Once the climate gets warmer and food is abundant, they will immediately raise their wings and fly towards them, and call them here. Migrants. The consensus of the migrants is "Standing on the vent, pigs can fly", so every opportunity that comes represents a new journey.
"A journey without a map"
Except for China, there will not be such a grand occasion anywhere else in the world: According to estimates, in order to develop the new energy vehicle industry, my country’s electric vehicle subsidies amounted to 59 billion yuan in 2015 and 83 billion yuan in 2016. As of 2017, A total of 129 billion yuan of financial subsidies were issued by the central government and local governments. Among them, the observability of profit can be understood clearly by just making a slight analogy:
There is a company in Suzhou, Jimsey, established in 2013. It took about two years to develop. It produced 25 cars in the first half of 2015. As long as it announced mass production of 2,905 new energy vehicles in December at the end of the year, it could receive a subsidy of over 100 million yuan. .
In fact, this is what Jimsey did, but the relevant department is not stupid. Upon investigation, it was found that most of its vehicle sales records were suspected of forgery. After the Jimsey incident, the fraudulent compensation of Rashomon continued. According to statistics, in 2016, 65 companies were picked up by the media and the amount of fraudulent compensation once exceeded 9.5 billion.
did you see? Every outlet has the same storyline and follow-up. There will always be speculators who are good at playing this kind of game among the migrants. This is the case for the sharing economy and the currency circle. It is natural that new energy vehicles, such as new energy vehicles, have long occupied the C position of policy subsidies. Can't escape.
Helpless subsidies will continue, otherwise how can new energy vehicles bear the expectation of China's core industry to seize the commanding heights of the global strategy? Only under the escort of policies can users ignite the slightest desire to buy in front of products that have a series of outstanding problems such as charging piles and batteries.
For all those who enter the market, this is a journey without a map to refer to. New technologies are needed, and the demand for the capital chain is even greater. There is not much time left until the flop point in 2020. Migrants must rethink how to occupy a place in the future automobile travel market.
At present, there are three forces surrounding new energy vehicles. One is independent brand manufacturers, the other is foreign-funded manufacturers, and the third is a new force in Internet vehicle manufacturing. They have already started from their respective strengths to expand their path to the market.
Traditional car companies play a leading role, obtain qualifications for R&D and production, and cross the entire industry chain. Foreign automakers, on the other hand, cooperated with Chinese companies in joint ventures. Under the favorable policy of abolishing foreign equity in 2020, they will continue to accelerate product structure adjustments and build factories in China. The new car-making forces are constantly financing, trying to solve the problem of mass production.
With the adjustment of the new energy vehicle policy in 2018, the intention of market-led transformation has become clearer, and the weak, speculative, and laymen will eventually have no chance to see each other. What remains will only be part of the three forces, and they will eventually fight three survival battles in the trajectory of new energy travel.
The first battle: price dragging to death
In every Internet outlet, the characteristic of enterprise layout is fast. As soon as Mobike and the little yellow car came out, rainbows appeared on the streets; short videos attracted too much money, and various Internet celebrities "gathered together"; knowledge paid to kill the four kingdoms, detonating the era when everyone is self-media... The characteristics of the Internet It is simply that they can’t afford to delay. Companies cannot use innovative technologies or upgrade products to make profits. Instead, they can only create new business models out of thin air to defeat the old market and win by volume.
In the field of new energy vehicles, scale and funding also determine the life and death of car manufacturers. According to the data of China Automobile Research Institute, there are more than 200 new energy automobile companies in China. In the next period of time, the country will no longer use a lot of taxpayers' hard-earned money to raise players without hematopoietic ability. On the contrary, the reduction of subsidies triggers a price war, which will inevitably drive some people out of the market. This is the first stage of the price drag to death war.
The second stage that determines whether players can survive is to have a place in the emerging capital market.
What is the emerging capital market? Detroit, the neighbor next door, made a good explanation: The US, which once suffered a brain drain and is full of unfinished buildings, has fallen into the automotive industry capital. Now it is drawing a blueprint for emerging industries with a new economy based on autonomous driving. A set of data from Cheyun.com shows:
“In the entire Michigan state where Detroit is located, there are more than 90,000 engineers working in 375 automotive R&D centers, 60 North American top 100 automotive parts suppliers, and 12 automotive final assembly plants. In addition, Michigan has 15 universities and colleges, Their engineering education projects are among the best in the country.
In terms of geographical location, although Detroit belongs to the Eastern Time Zone, it is already relatively west, and it is relatively quick to travel from there to most parts of the United States. Detroit Metropolitan International Airport is one of the largest air ports in the United States, with 1,100 flights every day to 4 other continents in the world. The "Ambassador Bridge" connecting Detroit and Canada is the busiest international cross-border passage in North America. Moreover, compared with other coastal areas in the United States, Detroit has smoother traffic and lower costs for business operations and growth. "
In the process of the re-emergence of the Detroit automobile industry, it is constructing a capital field composed of talent advantages and geographic advantages, which has become an indispensable driving force for its development. In fact, this kind of outline is slowly emerging in China. As shown in the figure below, the Yangtze River Delta region and its surrounding areas are becoming a relatively important emerging capital market for new domestic car-making forces:
This can also be feedback from the number of charging piles in these areas:
Since new car forces have no innate genes, they must avoid being dragged down by prices before the market matures. Obviously, survival in a suitable soil is the best choice.
The second battle: the volume of public opinion
The noise of making cars is rolling, and financing must be done. The competition for cars from the media has become a key step that has to be taken.
Data shows that in 2016, there were already 5 million auto public accounts in the country. In addition to auto self-media made by media people, there are also auto manufacturers, parts suppliers, dealers, auto repair shops, and even car wash owners who are doing cars. the public.
As the backbone of automobile manufacturers connecting end retail, this kind of commercial attribute made many self-media companies take a big step forward on the road to wealth and freedom. Although those who ranked at the waist had too many monks and porridges, they also got some money.
However, in 2018, things have become much more cruel. On the one hand, readers and Party A are not enough. Auto We-Media must consider the transformation path. On the other hand, as users' reading habits change and economic environment changes, the entire industry has formed. In the situation of holding a group to keep warm, auto media must choose a platform that suits its transformation path. The more vertical the more distinctive the characteristics, the more advantageous it will undoubtedly be in the red sea of ​​competition in the future.
In the field of new energy vehicles, there have been many self-media platforms with this temperament, and they will bet on the future automotive field, whether it is the car emperor created by Toutiao today, or the development based on the Hainan Free Trade Zone. Shanche.com, they went lightly and quickly gathered a group of precise users. For new energy vehicle manufacturers, occupying this position may truly win the new blue ocean where users gather.
The third battle: industrial mergers
In the history of car manufacturing in the world, different countries have their own set of systems. For example, the Japanese automobile industry belongs to the vertical division of labor, that is, the automobile companies are at the top, and the core parts companies and technology research and development cooperative enterprises are below, and the European and American are horizontal divisions. Now China is slowly forming its own set of systems-through the reorganization of the auto industry.
On April 17, the National Development and Reform Commission decided to abolish restrictions on foreign ownership in special vehicles and new energy vehicles in 2018; abolish restrictions on foreign ownership in commercial vehicles in 2020; abolish restrictions on foreign ownership in passenger vehicles in 2022, and at the same time abolish no more than two joint ventures limits. Through the five-year transition period, the auto industry will all lift restrictions.
Since among all major auto countries, only China’s auto industry policies restrict foreign shareholding, and major auto producing countries such as Europe, the United States, Japan, Korea, and Thailand do not restrict foreign shareholding. This change means that Chinese car companies will bear more in the short term. Pressure to deal with the upcoming merger and reorganization battle.
In fact, as early as 2009, the "Automobile Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan") issued by the State Council clearly pointed out the support for the merger and reorganization of large automobile enterprise groups. According to China Industry News: Before and after the plan was released, the auto industry's mergers and reorganizations were frequently staged: SAIC's merger with Nanjing Automobile, GAC Group's merger with Changfeng Motor, Changan Automobile's merger with Changhe Automobile, Dongfeng Motor and Fuqi Group signed an equity framework cooperation agreement .
Now that the New Deal is promulgated, China's auto industry must become stronger, and mergers and reorganizations are an inevitable road.
Feng Fei, the head of the Industrial Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said it well: "The domestic capacity is not high in basic research and the initial construction of industrialization. Taking the path of industrial innovation alliance may be a more realistic choice."
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